Transforming Utilities’ Conversion Points

September 2011 to September 2013

Dr Liz Varga, Cranfield University

Aims and objectives:

This research project takes a complex systems perspective and uses agent based modelling methods to understanding interdependencies and inefficiencies in order to exploit opportunities to adapt infrastructure at points of conversion where two or more utilities might benefit from the change.

These points might be conversion from one resource to another (like coal to electricity) or transport (like sewage from industry to treatment plant) or both (like electricity from distribution point to street lighting).

  • The objective is to highlight opportunities for compatible joined-up regulation and inter-utility adaptation, by replacing, avoiding or improving conversions mindful of new technology.
  • The modelling will simulate national infrastructure improvements of various options to change.
  • The strategy to focus on conversion points could provide a future framework for joined-up exploratory research, not only for resource (fossil fuel) minimisation and carbon dioxide reduction, but also to examine utility security and resilience.

Final TUCP dissemination meeting, September 2013

Research has demonstrated the potential of using agent-based models to represent complex and interdependent multi-utility and service systems to explore the consequences of different policies and their effects on achieving sustainable national infrastructure into the future.

By emphasising the provision of services, rather than the physical assets, the project has led to some very interesting and possibly counter-intuitive findings regarding carbon emissions, with implications for consideration of future policy interventions and for meeting emission reduction targets set by the UK government.

Conference papers:

  • Varga, L., Camci, F., Boxall, J., Toossi, Machell, J., Blythe, P.T., Taylor, C. Transforming Critical Infrastructure: Matching the Complexity of the Environment to Policy ECCS 2012.
  • Varga, L. Attitudes & Behaviours in Utility Systems, ARCC CN, Birmingham 2012.
  • Varga, L., Grubic, G., Greening, P., Varga, S. Critical Infrastructure and Social Systems Coevolution, Complexity Interface 2012.
  • Toossi, A., Camci, F., Varga, L. IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT 2013) – Developing an AHP based decision model for energy systems policy making.
  • Varga, L. ISGNI 2013 – Sydney Australia 2013 Action in 8 domains for an 8 factor improvement: infrastructure with agency.
  • Gonzalez, J. de Durana, J. Barambones, O., Kremers, E. Varga, L. Agent based modelling of local energy networks as instances of Complex Infrastructure Systems, ECCS’13.
  • Raven P.G., Machell J., Boxall J.B. Choice infrastructure: non-engineering strategies for behaviour change around domestic water and sewerage use; 7th International Conference on Sewer Processes & Networks, Uni. Of Sheffield, 28–30/8/2013.
  • Raven P.G., Machell J., Boxall J.B. Worlds that tell stories, stories that tell worlds: diegesis and mimesis in science fiction and technoscience, Science in Public 2013, Nottingham, 22-23/7/

Academic papers:

  • Robinson, A.P. Blythe, P.T., Bell, M.C., Hübner, Y., Hill, G.A. (2013). Analysis of electric vehicle driver recharging demand profiles and subsequent impacts on the carbon content of electric vehicle trips, Energy Policy, 61, 337–348 www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004266
  • Toossi, A., Camci, F., Varga, L. (2013). IEEE Developing an AHP based decision model for energy systems policy making, IEEE International Conference on Industrial Technology (ICIT), 1456–1460.
  • Neaimeh, M., Hill, G.A., Hübner, Y., Blythe, P.T. (2013), Routing systems to extend the driving range of electric vehicles, IET Intelligent Transport Systems, July, 1–10.
  • Varga, L., Grubic, T., Greening, P., Varga, S. Camci, F. (2013) Characterising Conversion Points and Complex Infrastructure Systems: Creating a system representation for agent based modelling, Complexity, in revision.
  • Varga, L., Camci, F., Boxall, J., Toossi, Machell, J., Blythe, P.T., Taylor, C. (2013) Transforming Critical.
  • Infrastructure: Matching the Complexity of the Environment to Policy, International Journal of E-Planning Research (IJEPR), submitted.
  • Bale, C.S.E., Varga, L., Foxon, T. (2013) Energy & Complexity: New Ways Forward, Applied Energy, submitted.
  • Karaca, F. Camci, F. Soiling Reduction Analysis of Cultural Heritage through Adoption of Passenger Electric Cars, Journal of Cultural Heritage, submitted.
  • Grubic, T., Varga, L., Varga, S. (2013) Conditions and implications of large-scale adoption of household generation technologies, Energy Policy, ready for submission.
  • Raven PG, Machell J, Boxall JB, Choice infrastructure: non-engineering strategies for behaviour change around domestic water and sewerage use; Water Science & Technology submitted.
  • Grubic, T., Varga, L., Varga, S. (2013) How critical are household generation technologies for the UK national infrastructures?, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, ready for submission.
  • Machell J, Raven P.G., Boxall J. (2013) As-yet-untitled paper proposing a system of electricity and water conversion points, under preparation.
  • Y. Hübner, P.T. Blythe, T. Grubic, F. Camci, J. Boxall, J. Machell, F. Karaca, P. Raven, L. Varga. Estimating the demand for electric vehicles using the TUCP approach, under preparation.
  • Y. Hübner, O. Heidrich, G.A. Hill, P.T. Blythe, R.J. Dawson. Transport, EV and climate change mitigation strategies in UK cities, under preparation.