{"id":22117,"date":"2016-02-01T12:34:56","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T12:34:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/?p=22117"},"modified":"2016-02-01T12:34:56","modified_gmt":"2016-02-01T12:34:56","slug":"can-we-predict-the-location-of-overheating-related-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/can-we-predict-the-location-of-overheating-related-deaths\/","title":{"rendered":"Can we predict the location of overheating-related deaths?"},"content":{"rendered":"
New research from UCL indicates that the risk of death during hot weather is most likely in the outskirts of London, where many homes are at risk of overheating, rather than in the city centre, where outdoor temperatures are generally higher.<\/p>\n
Researchers combined maps of population age, outdoor temperature variations and indoor temperature estimates for over 2.6 million domestic addresses in London to predict the location at greatest risk of heat-related mortality.<\/p>\n
In London, health data indicates that people face an increased risk of death above a temperature threshold of 24.8\u00baC, with the elderly being at greatest risk. As Londoners typically spend most of their time indoors, the actual temperature exposure of the population will, in part, be determined by building type and local surrounding outdoor temperatures. This is particularly notable in dense urban areas, where day and night temperatures are higher than surrounding, less built-up areas \u2013 known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.<\/p>\n
In the UK, temperature-related death is usually associated with cold weather. However, heat-related mortality will become increasingly important as the frequency of extreme heat events rises with climate change.<\/p>\n
Heat risk thresholds vary across the UK regions. In London, temperatures above the threshold of 24.8\u00baC increase the risk of mortality, with the elderly being the most vulnerable as temperatures climb.<\/p>\n
In a large and diverse city such as London, there is an inevitable spatial variation in population vulnerability to heatwaves:<\/p>\n
A mathematical relationship between age, temperature, and mortality risk allows us to estimate how many individuals might die during hot weather, based on geographical data. This study found that:<\/p>\n
People, housing, and local temperatures are important factors in identifying locations that may experience an increase in mortality during hot weather.<\/p>\n
We can identify who is most vulnerable to heat, the areas across the city where they live, the types of housing that are at greatest risk of overheating, and the locations where the UHI is greatest.<\/p>\n
By combining these different data sources into a model, we are able to identify locations that may need additional attention during hot weather and when developing heatwave plans. The model can also quantify the reduction in mortality offered by implementing adaptation and UHI-reduction strategies such as urban greening, and so informing urban planning decisions. As a result, it is possible to include overheating prevention options in cost-benefit analyses.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Researchers combined maps of data for 2.6 million London addresses to predict the location at greatest risk of heat-related mortality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[24,15],"tags":[44,56],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22117"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.arcc-network.org.uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}