Infrastructure & interdependencies

Many aspects of infrastructure are interconnected and dependent on each other; failure in one sector can quickly lead to a cascade of failures affecting other sectors. Such interdependencies are likely to increase in future, adding complexity to risk analysis and the decision-making process.

Infrastructure dialogue – understanding dependencies and interdependencies across the infrastructure sector

A joint initiative between the Environment Agency’s Infrastructure Operators’ Adaptation Forum (IOAF) and the ARCC Network, this dialogue brings together those within the policy, practice and research communities who are exploring dependencies and interdependencies in the infrastructure sectors.

The programme is sharing learning, challenges and plans by providing opportunities to explore work within and across the different communities, to initiate and strengthen collaborative efforts and enhance overall understanding and progress.

Presentations from the first (April 2014) and second (June 2014) dialogue events are available.

Work is continuing through ARCC network leadership of the IOAF Working Group 5 on ‘Interdependencies and cascade failure risks’. This builds on previous dialogues, on-going links with Infrastructure UK, the UK Regulators Network and three major research infrastructure research projects (ICIF, ITRC and iBuild).

Interdependent infrastructure research projects

• iBUILD – developing new approaches to infrastructure business models particularly at the local and city scale.
• ICIF – understanding the opportunities emerging from the increased interdependence of infrastructure systems.
• ITRC – considering the energy sector within the overall national infrastructure system looking at performance, risks and interdependencies.
• ReVISIONS – explores the inter-relationships, tensions and interactions between infrastructure policies and plans at the regional and local scales and explores pathways to reorient the city-region from its ‘linear’ input-use-dispose metabolism, to a more efficient circular or ‘ecological’ metabolism.

Achieving Adaptable Assets: sustainable integrated infrastructure

Achieving Adaptable Assets is a suite of five projects exploring a cross-utility approach to sustainable asset design and management:

• All in One – creating a roadmap for scientists and engineers by identifying the existing challenges and gaps in science and technology that prevent one utility product from supplying all the services. All in One – identifying the challenges and gaps in science and technology that prevent one utility product from supplying all the services.
• Land of the MUSCos – to understand the current opportunities and barriers to Multiple Utility Service Companies development, and to realistically model the socio-technical systemic changes required for a true MUSCo expansion.
• Shock (NOT) Horror – unpicks the potential for radical change to challenge infrastructure stakeholders to move out of their comfort zone, challenge the current organization of infrastructure in silos, rethink the nature of shocks and devise new and transformative ways of thinking about infrastructure.
• Transforming Utility Conversion Points – looking across utilities at interdependencies and efficiencies of infrastructure at points of energy conversion.
• Undermining Infrastructure – to produce a new, low carbon adaptive design paradigm for hyper-efficient use of valuable materials, leading to a step change in resource use, reduce the vulnerability of future infrastructure, reduce CO2 emissions and enable adaptability.

In the UK, we expect access to a reliable supply of energy at all times. The energy sector – generation, transmission and distribution – is evolving to maintain security of supply, to meet carbon reduction targets and to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. As energy sector assets have long operational lifetimes, addressing these issues can be challenging.

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) 2012 identifies the key climate impacts for the energy sector from the 2030s as:

• changes in energy demand due to rising temperatures
• increased flood risks due to more intense rainfall events
• rising sea levels and constraints on water availability for power station operations

Other risks include:

• heat related damage to energy infrastructure
• forced reductions in energy transmission efficiency due to higher temperatures

Coastal sites are vulnerable to erosion and rising sea levels, while renewable energy targets present challenges as many renewable energy generation facilities are weather-dependent.

Most sectors are dependent on the reliable provision of energy, while the energy sector relies on, for example, the ICT sector to allow control and communications. These interdependencies will increase in the future, adding complexity to risk analysis and the decision-making process.

Energy research projects

• ARCoES – looking at the threats to energy supply from coastal flooding and erosion with particular emphasis on the UK nuclear energy sector and regional energy supply issues.
• ARIES – assessing the resilience of the UK gas and electricity systems to ensure a balance between changing patterns of demand and supply.
• CLUES – assessing the development of decentralised energy systems in urban areas in the light of national decarbonisation and urban sustainability goals
• RESNET – analysing, at the national scale, climate-related changes in the reliability of the UK’s electricity system and assessing adaptation options to enhance resilience.

Travel is an inevitable part of our daily lives, and transport systems are critical to the functioning and economic well-being of the country

As the number and frequency of heavy rainfall events increase, extensive flooding incidents are expected to become an almost annual occurrence by the 2080s. Increased bridge scour, landslides, and the deformation of road surfaces and rail lines due to high temperatures will increase network disruption. However, there will be fewer interruptions to services caused by snow and ice in the winter months.

Passenger comfort and the appropriate storage of goods during transit will be an issue, with the future rise in temperatures likely to lead to overheating and heat stress.

The future resilience of transport systems is closely connected with other infrastructure networks – failure in one sector can quickly cascade to others, highlighting how vital it is to understand the risks and interdependencies.

Transport research projects

Several EPSRC projects are tackling aspects of adaptation across the transport sector:

• ARCADIA – considering how the built environment and infrastructure, including transport systems, can be adapted to make cities more resilient. Focussed on London.
• CREW – understanding the impacts of extreme weather events on community resilience and planning for the future.
• FUTURENET – assessing the future resilience of the UK transport system including climate impacts on both the physical network and patterns of transport demand. Focused on the London to Glasgow corridor.
• iSMART – improving the understanding of infrastructure slope behaviour under a range of environmental scenarios to create a more effective and sustainable transport system.
• STEP-Change – understanding changes in people’s transport behaviour and how best to promote sustainable travel. Focusing on Leeds and Manchester.

Outputs in action

• Infrastructure Operators Adaptation Forum established by the Environment Agency to help operators work together on adaptation, with input from research projects and ARCC.

• FUTURENET contributed to the Network Rail Climate Change Adaptation Report submitted under Climate Change Act 2008.

• FUTURENET highlighted as source of research information in UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2012: Transport Sector Report (pdf, 16 KB).

A reliable water supply is fundamental to human health and wellbeing – water availability is already under pressure from factors such as population growth and land-use change. Without adaptation measures, climate change will intensify this pressure, leading to an increase in the demand for water and a reduction in the availability of supplies.

Risks include:

• reduction in river flows and ground water levels, limiting sustainable abstraction of water
• limited water supplies, particularly in south-east England and the Midlands
• failure of the sewage and surface water run-off systems during extreme rainfall events
• flooding of water industry assets

Water companies are working to increase resilience to the impacts of climate change – complex interdependencies with other sectors must be understood and addressed to ensure adaptation measures are appropriate.

Water research projects

• ARCC-Water – assessing future water supply systems and adaptation options taking account of environmental sustainability, energy costs and public acceptability (focussed on south and east of England).
• DOWNPIPE – adaptation of property drainage systems to cope with predicted changes in high-intensity rainfall events with implications for flood management.